I have a wager with lakerfan for OV $100 million, but that's more for fun than a real sense it'll do that much. It *could,* but it has so much working against it...
1. The biggest "R" opening to date was Hannibal's $58 million. The rating simply limits the # of people who can see the film, regardless of demand.
2. The movie will have screenings starting late Wednesday and into Thursday, impacting the weekend's grosses. All the diehards will probably skip class or work to catch it first.
But on the plus side...
1. According to producer Joel Silver, the movie has the best tracking report of any film in history. Awareness/must see levels are a record high. This will easily be the highest-grossing "R" film of all time.
2. Silver admitted that expectations are unfair due to the prohibitive rating. While that should be considered a demerit, in my mind he's just trying to make the record-breaking gross all the more impressive by insinuating that it can't be done.
3. It will open wider than any film in history.
4. It's not a "hard" R, meaning that parents will likely get dragged to it without complaining they have to sit through sexual content with their kid.
Ultimately, IMO these lines are getting sharper by the week, and the film will probably wind up grossing a little over $96 million, which would be utterly astounding. Hell, anything over $70 million is amazing. Logic says to play the UN, unless you think the film is unique enough to defy rational thought.
1. The biggest "R" opening to date was Hannibal's $58 million. The rating simply limits the # of people who can see the film, regardless of demand.
2. The movie will have screenings starting late Wednesday and into Thursday, impacting the weekend's grosses. All the diehards will probably skip class or work to catch it first.
But on the plus side...
1. According to producer Joel Silver, the movie has the best tracking report of any film in history. Awareness/must see levels are a record high. This will easily be the highest-grossing "R" film of all time.
2. Silver admitted that expectations are unfair due to the prohibitive rating. While that should be considered a demerit, in my mind he's just trying to make the record-breaking gross all the more impressive by insinuating that it can't be done.
3. It will open wider than any film in history.
4. It's not a "hard" R, meaning that parents will likely get dragged to it without complaining they have to sit through sexual content with their kid.
Ultimately, IMO these lines are getting sharper by the week, and the film will probably wind up grossing a little over $96 million, which would be utterly astounding. Hell, anything over $70 million is amazing. Logic says to play the UN, unless you think the film is unique enough to defy rational thought.
what I want to know is, just because everyone is "aware" of it, does that mean there's enough action/science fiction fans out there to pack theaters for 4 days, plus wednesday night? Spiderman was huge partly because it had great cross-over appeal, and I'm sceptical about The Matrix's adult female draw. Any romance between Neo and Trinity is non-existant in the previews. Maybe it doesn't need it. Take this with a grain of salt, but I'm going to say 89 million, partly because I took that bracket at Bodog. And with the 10 to one odds, I didn't lay a whole lot.
